The Price of Gas

The war between the US-Israel and Iran has escalated to include more countries since the unprovoked airstrikes on February 28, 2026. This expansion comes with rhetoric for the war from the White House changing more often than the Commander in Chief changes his diaper. There is not even agreement among Republicans that we are actually at war. “Excursion” has been the most common descriptor, akin to the “Special Military Operation” in the Russian euphemism playbook.

Among the innumerable failures of preparation and strategic planning in this war was the lack of understanding of what this could do to oil prices. I have been living in the United States in my current location for 6 years and prices are a full 60 cents higher per gallon than I have ever seen. If there is anything that Trump supporters have made a big deal about in the past, it was their fixation on the gas prices under the Biden administration. This was exemplified by the “I did that” stickers with a pointing Biden that were cropping up at pumps during the 2024 election season. Barring that gas prices are typically not indicative of a single decision made by the President of the United States (there is not a switch in the oval office that they can just pull to raise them) this war is about as close to a cause-and-effect relationship as you can get. I have no degree in economics and barely an understanding of supply and demand, but this was not hard to predict. During George W. Bush’s administration, the cost of the average price of gas went up every single year during his war in the Middle East. Unfortunately for the Trump regime, there is no off switch for a war. They kicked the hornet’s nest and killed the current leader’s father. A hardliner like the current Khameini is not likely to say “Oh you pushed the ‘war over’ button? Well, okay then.” No, sadly, this is a conflict that will continue and almost certainly escalate.

The Strait of Hormuz, located on Iran’s southern border, is the sole sea passage from the Persian Gulf into the Arabian sea. Many of the major oil-producing nations in the world are in the gulf and export large percentages of their oil from this area to the rest of the world through this strait. The Iranians have instituted an essential blockade of this waterway, and if the reports are to be believed, it has been mined by the Iranian Navy (the navy Trump reported had been destroyed, previously). The US responded by destroying a number of these vessels, but information regarding effective mining of the strait has not been released. Multiple tankers and cargo ships belonging to different countries have been attacked by Iran, likely meant to disrupt world trade and oil transport. Understandably, the companies that own these boats have been hesitant to move through the strait, and insurance companies have advised against it. An Exxon Valdez scenario in the Persian Gulf would be a catastrophe and the disruption of trade that would cause would only be one of many major concerns. Even if they ships manage to pass through unscathed, the skyrocketing costs of insurance for these vessels will certainly be passed on to the consumer. So, less supply getting through the strait means the price of oil per barrel goes up and therefore the price at the pump goes up.

There is another piece of information here that is perhaps overlooked, which is that when oil increases, so does the price of diesel. The vast majority of trucks that deliver all goods in the United States run on diesel. When companies pay more for delivery, this gets passed onto the consumer. It is not just that you pay more for gas, you pay more for everything that is transported by oil. It is possible if we had a more robust alternative energy sector in the US that some of this could be offset, but this administration has done everything possible to dismantle the gains made by the Biden administration in that sector.

Why would Iran blockade this pass? Well, when you are David and at war with Goliath and the Philistines, you have to be savvy on how and where you choose to fight. Iran cannot hope to win this war in any of the traditional ways like invading a country, deposing the regime and instituting their own puppet government like the United States has so much historical experience with. The strategy they have instead employed, is meant to disrupt the oil supply to the United States by not only blockading the Strait of Hormuz but by attacking tankers and oil refineries of its neighbors. They are making it hurt Americans at the pump in the hopes that it will instill enough pressure to topple the Trump regime. It is not a crazy idea. In fact, it is quite similar to the strategy the US used against the Soviet Union by funding the Mujahideen in Afghanistan covertly. The plan was to devastate the Soviet army with a guerilla war and make their invasion and occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s so outrageously costly in blood and treasure that it would precipitate the collapse of the Soviet Union. It worked. The US bled the Russians white, and I submit that Iran will bleed American pockets dry in a similar way until Trump is overthrown, and the US government is forced to sit down with them and make concessions to end the conflict, one that may not have favorable terms for the US.

Russia seems like the only winner here. In March, the US opened the country to Russian oil for 30 days (so far), lifting the sanctions that have been present since the Special Military Operation in Ukraine began in 2022. Perhaps the Kremlin is the reason Trump embroiled the US in this war – that would at least be the most believable casus belli I have heard from the Trump regime so far. If the Russians are not directly behind this, they are certainly benefitting now, and I do not think that is likely to slow down for some time. Because even if the US were to stop bombing them today, the Iranian administration is so understandably pissed off, I do not see the Iranians ending hostilities and their blockade without major concessions. This has already been widely described as the most major oil disruption in history, and it is likely it is going to get a lot worse. The only silver lining I can see in all this death, destruction, and destitution is that this will be incredibly unpopular at home in the US. Even before the war, the economy was already devastated from Trump’s policies, and this was the most important issue for the presidential vote in 2024. Maybe this will be the final straw to excise the tumor in the White House.

References:

Gas prices during George W Bush Term:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2023/03/08/average-gasoline-prices-under-the-past-four-presidents/

Iranian Mine Laying vessels destroyed by US.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-energy-secretary-deletes-post-about-navy-escorting-vessel-through-strait-2026-03-10/

Largest oil disruption in history:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/iran-war-oil-prices-supply-trump-rcna263135

Trump’s war on renewable energy:

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-solar-installations-down-2025-after-trump-policies-jolt-market-report-says-2026-03-10/

Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine:

https://www.npr.org/2026/03/10/nx-s1-5743971/what-four-years-of-war-in-ukraine-looks-like-from-russia

Times the USA triggered regime changes across the world: